Issue 9 Dec 25 2025 5 min read

The week stayed broadly balanced on paper.

Buyers still had room to push back.

Buyer Seller
5 / 10

Balanced market, leaning buyer.

1  new listings2  salesmedian sold $370, 0000  over ask1  under ask
4  expired, 1  cancelled
Local real estate intelligence - weekly.

Signal of the Week

1  new listings - 2  sales (median sold $370, 000)

Market pulse

These charts show where the market stood at the date of issue - inventory, then sales momentum.

Inventory

111 current

High 136 · Low 5.00

Inventory

111 homes on market

Supply is running above last year, giving buyers more room to compare and negotiate.

6-month view

In this view: High 136 · Low 5 · Avg 111

Current snapshot: Current 111 · Vs last year ↑ 22% · 82% of cycle high

Low Inventory cycle High

Sales

3.38 8-week avg

High 5.38 · Low 1.50

Sales

3.375 sales/week

Demand is present, but absorption remains light relative to available supply.

3-year view

In this view: Avg 3.375 · Absorption 3% · Range high 0

Current snapshot: 8-week avg 3.375 · Vs last year ↓ 18% · Buyer market pressure is light.

Sales that explain the market

Sales happened - but they did not come easily.

Buyers are still active, but they are choosing carefully. The right listings still move, while others need more time or a sharper number.

Longer DOM is still part of the picture for listings that miss the mark. That means buyers are engaging, but on their own terms. Sellers who start too ambitiously may pay in time. 0 sold over ask while 1 sold under ask. Median sold price was $370,000. This week’s board moves made seller adjustments easier to see. That usually means buyers are pushing back on optimistic positioning. Sellers who align early may avoid longer periods of drift.

New listings

If you want the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That matters because this is still a market that filters hard. That sets up the rest of the week.

If you want the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That matters because not every active week is an easy one.

The easiest place to start this week is with new inventory.

7471 1st Avenue $599,000

My take

This was a useful week because it showed where buyers would act - and where they would not. 1 new listing arrived while 2 sales closed. The weekly flow looked fairly balanced on the surface. 0 sold over ask while 1 sold under ask. Taken together, this was a market that stayed active, but only rewarded listings that were positioned correctly. This week’s board moves made seller adjustments easier to see.

A fuller board does not create urgency by itself. It usually turns attention toward value rather than scarcity. Pricing and presentation do more of the heavy lifting. The better-positioned listings should keep moving first. It still feels like a market rewarding fit more than noise. Nothing here flipped the market on its head. The market is working, but it is still making listings prove themselves. That is the next real signal.

That is the cleanest way I’d read this week.

Fernie’s market rarely moves in a straight line. The goal here is to make the weekly signal easier to read.

If you’re trying to make sense of Fernie beyond the headlines, I’m always happy to talk through what I’m seeing.

Where expectations met the market

If the market pushed back anywhere, it was here. That is where sellers start reacting to the market they have, not the one they wanted. That makes this section useful well beyond the raw count.

No fresh price cuts landed this week, but the reduction layer is still active on the board.

If there was softness this week, it showed up here. This is one of the better places to see whether sellers are still pushing - or starting to listen.

Pressure on the board

  • 35 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 35.7% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 5 (4 expired, 1 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.0 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.6 cuts/week

Active cuts to watch

Even without a fresh weekly cut, this still matters because a lot of the active board is already negotiating against original expectations.

The outside pressure

Fernie is its own market, but I still keep an eye on the broader financing backdrop because buyers do feel it.

  • BoC rate: As of 2025-12-26, the Bank of Canada policy rate was 2.25%, which matters most for variable-rate borrowers and helps shape borrowing confidence.
  • Bond yields: Canada’s 5-year bond yield remains the main fixed-mortgage watch, and it had moved higher versus about a month earlier.
  • Oil / inflation mood: Oil was falling into the week, so it was easing some inflation pressure.

This keeps the backdrop tied to the week ending 2025-12-26, not today’s headlines.

What I’m watching next

Whether extra supply leads to action or just more comparison.

If the sharper listings keep moving first, the market likely stays balanced but selective. If they start to stall, that usually means the next move comes from pricing, not from a lack of interest.

Data notes. Data sourced from MLS activity for the week ending Dec 25 2025. Numbers reflect the Fernie market unless otherwise noted.